Thursday, July 30, 2015

Trust no one

Digging a little deeper, it's remarkable just how little trust millennials express having in other people. The following graph shows the percentages of those under 30 years of age, those over 30 years old, and the population as a whole who assert that "most people can be trusted" on a dichotomous rendering of a question ("you can't be too careful in life" is the alternative response) that has been asked since the survey's inception in the early seventies:


While trust in others has decayed alongside social cohesion across all age groups, the decline has been especially precipitous among young adults. While expressed levels of trust among those over 30 has decreased by a bit less than one-third in the last four decades, it has been sliced to less than half of what it was among those under 30, to the point now where just 1-in-5 young adults feel that other people are worthy of their trust.

The country is coming apart at the seams. We can pretend to try and talk it over but the words come out too rough.

GSS variables used: TRUST(1-2), AGE(18-29)(30-89), YEAR

Monday, July 27, 2015

Caitlyn and Zoey

From the NameVoyager application at Baby Naming Wizard, the history of the name Caitlyn:


It first crops as a name for infants in the eighties and begins to become somewhat familiar in the nineties.

And of the name Zoey (the adopted name of the feminine transgender woman who physically threatened a wrecker who dared to state the biologically obvious fact that, gender identification aside, Caitlyn and Zoey are, biologically, both males):


Zoey first shows up in the nineties and still may yet to have peaked as a trendy name.

If these two had thought about becoming (or being, or whatever) women for their entire lives, one might expect that they would've long since identified names to represent their true identities, names that would've been popular when they were growing up, like Bruce or Robert.

If, on the other hand, transgenderism is the consequence of something else, like psychologically unstable men acting on a narcissistic desire to lust after themselves, we might expect them to pick names they had recently been exposed to from coming across hot teenagers or twenty-somethings with those names.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Salubrious straights

The percentages of people, by sexual orientation, who reported having missed work over the last month due to "mental or physical" health issues (n = 1,160):

OrientationMissed work
Straight13.3%
Bisexual19.4%
Gay34.4%

Sample sizes are small for gays and bis (22 and 27, respectively) as the question was asked for the first time in the most recent 2014 iteration of the survey, so results shouldn't be treated as anything more than suggestive.

When we talk about a germ theory of homosexuality, this isn't what we usually have in mind, but as someone who gets the anecdotal sense that (male) homosexuals are generally less healthy than heterosexuals are, the above comes as little surprise, even after acknowledging that stereotypically gay jobs are not especially physically demanding or dangerous.

GSS variables used: MISSWORK, SEXORNT

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Social entropy

The US has become so disunited--religiously, ethnically, politically, economically, culturally, racially, linguistically--that its existence as a single political entity no longer makes sense. As the polyglot country becomes increasingly diverse and thus increasingly divided, people are becoming increasingly distrustful of other people. The following graph shows the percentage of GSS respondents, by year, who say that "most people can be trusted" (n = 37,407):


Whites self-describe as far more trusting of others than NAMs do, and slightly more trusting of others than Asians do. From 2000 onward (the year the survey first began asking a detailed question about racial identity), the percentages of respondents who say most people can be trusted, by race (n = 11,530):


Hispanics and Asians are the fastest growing demographic groups in the US. As their shares of the population continue to grow, levels of social trust will continue to deteriorate. Prepare to hunker down in the disUnited States of Misanthropia.

GSS variables used: YEAR, TRUST(1-2), RACECEN1(1)(2)(4-10)(15-16)

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Blacks crush blacks

How the distribution of perpetrators of violent crimes perpetrated against blacks would look in a perfectly diverse, multicultural utopia:


How a naif might think the distribution looks based on the perpetual cherry picking and gross omissions served up by the major media:


Piggybacking on the 2012-2013 NCVS numbers crunched by Heather Mac Donald, how the perpetrator distribution against black victims of non-homicidal violent crime actually looks:


A picture is worth a thousand words, and this is a handy one to pull out of a back pocket every time a SWPL or race hustler yammers on about how some individual case of white-on-black violence serves as a microcosm of American society as a whole (while ignoring the 27 instances of black-on-white violence that occur for each single case of white-on-black violence).

Just 1-in-10 black victims suffer at the hands of non-Hispanic white perpetrators of violence. This even though whites comprise a majority of the population.

Proximity, of course, plays a substantial role in shaping the distribution. The Obama administration's drive to push NAMs out of the inner cities and into white suburbs will, as one of its many aftereffects, lead to an increase in interracial violence. As a consequence, a few more blacks will suffer at the hands of whites and a lot more whites will suffer at the hands of blacks. Diversity + Proximity = War.

Still, if #blacklivesmatter, it seems curiously ineffective and inefficient to focus almost exclusively on a small minority of cases in which blacks suffer if the objective is to reduce said suffering.

Whites are, in fact, less likely to perpetrate acts of violence against any of the groups measured--whites, blacks, Hispanics, or others--than their numbers alone would predict under the (flawed) assumption that propensity for criminal violence is distributed evenly across racial groups.

Blacks, on the other hand, at 13.2% of the population, are more likely to perpetrate acts of violence against members of all other groups than would be predicted under an egalitarian assumption based on their share of the population alone.